DEAR JON LETTERS
New Year Predictions.
by Dear Jon
December 30, 2003
I was just reading your predictions for 2003 in Sort 197 and noted that you didn't do too well. Please give us your predictions for 2004 so we will know what will NOT happen.
You’re very funny. You made me look up Sort 197, which I never have time to do, but I did it this time to defend my record. As it turns out, my record is pretty good.
1. My first prediction was that the Republican majority leader would be tap-dancing in a snake pit. No doubt about that.
2. My second prediction was that the Democrats would not allow the Trent Lott mishap to die. My mistake. They did allow Strom Thurmond to die, however.
3. Israel suffering attacks while facing international criticism. Basically I should give myself credit for three predictions coming true, but to play be conservative rules, we will keep that as another “one” proven to be correct.
4. This prediction about debating with anti-Israel Americans cannot count towards my total, since it has not been tried. Remember, the prediction was about coherence, not about whether anyone would actually initiate the debate.
5. In this prediction, both Arafat and Hussein continue in power. I am half right, including being one hundred percent correct as to why Arafat continues in power.
6. Fidel Castro continues alive and well. I was wrong. Maybe next year.
7-8. These predictions concerning Jimmy Carter offering missile targeting technology to the North Koreans in exchange for their promise never to use it, and his resultant nobel prize, were clearly satirical and do not count in my record.
9. “The peace movement that flowers this Spring will spew half-truths and self-justifications that are even more asinine than the administration’s.” Nailed it.
10. This is another clearly satirical prediction regarding Saudi princesses hiding money for Osama bin Laden in their bras. I will not count it as correct, however, even though the spirit of our hypocrisy towards so-called “friends” and straw-dog enemies in our “war or terror” has been well-proven in 2003.
11. Federal monitoring of the Partial Observer has been noted by the Webmaster and PO staff, since some of the web engines indexing our articles are traced to the Department of Defense. Is Dear Jon paranoid? Maybe. But as to this eleventh prediction, he is also right.
12. It is not known whether the federal agents that have looked into the Partial Observer have been shocked by Dear Jon or not.
So, out of 12 predictions, two are discarded as “undetermined” and three more are clearly satirical. Out of the 7 predictions left, Dear Jon is correct 4.5 times.
All in all, I would say that is not bad, especially when you read my caveat at the beginning of Sort 197. It is harder to make predictions for just a year at a time, and easier to make predictions for a century at a time.
Now the Webmaster wants predictions for 2004. Here we go:
About the Author:
Dear Jon never thought of himself as a futurist, but with such a good record on his predictions, he is thinking of hiring himself out as a Consultant on Tomorrow.
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